Assessment of wind resources and short-term power prediction in Lithuania

Abstract

The installed wind power in Lithuania reached 422 MW in 2015, and it was one of the most developing renewable energy sectors in the country. For this reason, it is important to estimate wind energy potential and the tendencies of wind power prediction accuracy. In this work, the results of statistical analysis of wind measurements in a number of locations in Lithuania are presented, which makes the basis for wind energy potential estimation. Wind power prediction errors of different time scales have been analysed, and the influence of seasonal and diurnal wind power variation is pointed out. Also, the  possibilities of connection of new wind farms to the grid are analysed in the paper. Investigation shows that northern and middle regions of Lithuania are the  most favourable for further wind power development with the goal of reaching the total installed power of 840 MW till 2030.